Maintaining the highest standards of intelligence and academic rigor to produce the right information for decisionmakers at the right time

Our Publications

DC Analytics strives to add to the body of knowledge about the analysis process, intelligence policy, international security, stabilization, and other topics of interest to our partners. Some of these are available by subscription and others are online. Follow the links and information below to read our publications.

Books

Strategic Intelligence and Civil Affairs to Understand Legitimacy and Insurgency: Avoiding the Stabilization Trap Jun 2019 MacMillan & Co. Palgrave Pivot Series  eBook ISBN: 10978-3-030-20977-3   Hardcover ISBN: 978-3-030-20976-6

Intelligence Sharing, Transnational Organized Crime and Multinational Peace Keeping Jan 2018 MacMillan & Co. Palgrave Pivot Series                       eBook ISBN: 978-3-319-71183-6   Hardcover ISBN: 978-3-319-71182-9

The Analyst’s Cookbook 2006 Mercyhurst University Institute for Intelligence Studies Press: Erie, PA                                                                                 ISBN-10: 0-9773881-1-5 / 0977388115         ISBN-13: 978-0-9773881-1-0 / 9780977388110

Structured Analysis of Competing Hypotheses 2005 Mercyhurst Institute for Intelligence Studies Press: Erie, PA                                                          ISBN-10: 0-9773881-0-7 / 0977388107          ISBN-13: 978-0-9773881-0-3 / 9780977388103

Monographs

Alternative Governance Structures in Megacities: Threats and Opportunities                                                                                                                                 U.S. Army Strategic Studies Institute, Nov 2016                                                                                                                                                                         Developing a flexible toolkit of currently available and vetted resources to provide crucial foreknowledge and understanding of the alternative governance structures existing or emerging in dense urban environments would serve as a planning and operating force multiplier.

Chaos to Cohesion: A Regional Approach to African Stability, Security, and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa                                                                  U.S. Army Strategic Studies Institute, Apr 2013                                                                                                                                                                                  African Regional Economic Communities (RECs) have moved beyond their initial purpose of a loose confederation of trading partners to become increasingly effective supranational bodies promoting financial, political, and security stabilization in each of their regions. Looking at each of the RECs, their power centers, and areas of weakness, policymakers can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the sometimes symbiotic and often destructive dynamics within and among African states to seek more effective strategic and regional, not national, approaches.

Civilian Skills for African Military Officers to Resolve the Infrastructure, Economic Development, and Stability Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa                 U.S. Army Strategic Studies Institute, Mar 2010                                                                                                                                                                           USAFRICOM partnerships are an excellent foundation on which to provide engineering and other technical training for African military officers and NCOs. In this way, African nations can create indigenous capacity to construct and maintain needed infrastructure like power stations, dams, bridges, and roads. 

Images of Twentieth Century Genocide: Decoding Symbols and Heeding Warnings                                                                                                                Center for Security Studies, Zurich, Switzerland, 2006                                                                                                                                                                           This study intends to prove that genocide is not the frenzied act of madmen it appears to be. A successful genocide campaign requires years of planning, the coalescence of a particular set of environmental conditions, and careful psychological preparation of both the target and the aggressor populations. Predicting the next onset and preventing violence are attainable goals. This study proposes to illustrate how an effective Indicators and Warning (I&W) system can stop this century from outpacing the last in brutality.

Articles

Everything Old is New Again: Stabilization Lessons from Reconstruction   U.S. Army War Room blog post April 6, 2018

Accelerated Analysis: The Mercyhurst Method
Competitive Intelligence Magazine
 Sep/Dec 2009
This multi-step process helps analysts construct a meaningful conceptual model. It enables generalist analysts to provide exceptionally nuanced results that can be as statistically accurate as those produced by subject matter experts.

Defining the Somali Enemy
International Security Network’s Security Watch Apr 2009
The confluence of recent events provides the best opportunity in two decades for an international coalition to effectively address chaos in Somalia in the next 12 months.

Blow to Women’s Rights in Afghanistan
International Security Network’s Security Watch Oct 2008
Although women are now able to hold jobs and have more freedom in Afghanistan, they are still targeted by a resurgent Taliban as proven by the recent assassination of one policewoman.

The Abu Sayyaf Model
International Security Network’s Security Watch Sep 2008
Although Abu Sayyaf, once the greatest threat to Philippine security, has been dismembered with US help, this prescription is not likely to be an effective global policy.

Words of Estimative Probability
Competitive Intelligence Magazine Sep/Oct 2008
When an intelligence estimate is produced to mitigate a threat, but the threat’s significance or certainty is not clearly communicated to the decision-maker, a lack of linguistic clarity can have disastrous consequences in business or in national security. In the intelligence field, there is no agreement between analysts and decision-makers on specific words that express levels of analytical certainly required to enable selection and execution of appropriate decisions.

Chinese Repression of Uighurs
International Security Network’s Security Watch Aug 2008
While China lays out the welcome mat for the world, millions of ethnic Chinese have made themselves at home uninvited in the land of the Uighur.

Succeeding Turkmenbashi
International Security Network’s Security Watch Nov 2007
Turkmenistan’s new regime looks set to continue its neutrality policy in order to maintain its advantage in foreign affairs.

Evaluating Intelligence
Competitive Intelligence Magazine Sept/Oct 2007
Six years and billions of dollars after 9/11 and the WMD estimate, how do we know if these and other changes have improved the quality of intelligence analysis? More important, how do we evaluate intelligence generally?

Bulgaria-Macedonia Intel Scandal
International Security Network’s Security Watch Sep 2007
Accusations against Bulgaria are highly likely to reveal more about current internal Macedonian political climate than interstate relations.

Defining Strategic — You and What Army?
Competitive Intelligence Magazine Mar/Apr 2007
Typically, when you hear the word strategic, you think long-term or expensive. You also think BIG – armies, football teams. By the same token, we can all think of strategic decisions that were actually quite small or executed over a very short time. Like so many other things in business, politics, or life, we know it when we see it but we have a hard time defining such concepts.

Structured Analysis of Competing Hypotheses:  Improving a Tested Intelligence Methodology
Competitive Intelligence Magazine Nov/Dec 2006
The ACH methodology helps analysts overcome cognitive biases common to analysis in national security, law enforcement, and competitive intelligence. This method forces analysts to disprove hypotheses rather than let their minds jump to conclusions and permit biases and mindsets to determine the outcome before they properly evaluate the evidence.

Book Reviews

Congo’s Violent Peace: Conflict and Struggle Since the Great African War by Kris Berwouts, Parameters: The U.S. Army War College Quarterly, Volume 48, (Spring 2019)

Thabo Mbeki by Adekeye Adebajo and Julius Nyerere by Paul Bjerk, Security Forces in African States: Cases and Assessment By Paul Shemella and Nicholas Tomb, Parameters: The U.S. Army War College Quarterly, Volume 47, no. 3 (Autumn 2017)

While I admire several books on competitive intelligence, I consider a small number to be absolutely vital for any competitive intelligence practitioner… I am now adding to that select group this little gem, The Analyst’s Cookbook – Vol. 1.

~ John J. McGonagle,
Managing Partner,The Helicon Group