Publications

Publications

U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute External Researcher Monograph
Civilian Skills for African Military Officers, March 2011

Unsolicited Review of Civilian Skills for African Military Officers to Resolve the Infrastructure, Economic Development, and Stability Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Competitive Intelligence Anthology
2010, SCIP, Evaluating Intelligence
This publication is a compilation of keystone articles selected from SCIP's Competitive Intelligence Magazine and published over the last seven years. To add value to the original article content, each author has written an introduction which updates the subject under discussion, provides background on why the article was written, and illustrates the value the article provides to a competitive intelligence practitioner.  

"Accelerated Analysis: The Mercyhurst Method"
Competitive Intelligence Magazine
Sep/Dec 2009
This multi-step process helps analysts construct a meaningful conceptual model. It enables generalist analysts to provide exceptionally nuanced results that can be as statistically accurate as those produced by subject matter experts.

"Defining the Somali Enemy"
International Security Network’s Security Watch April 2009
The confluence of recent events provides the best opportunity in two decades for an international coalition to effectively address chaos in Somalia in the next 12 months.

"Blow to Women's Rights in Afghanistan"
International Security Network’s Security Watch October 2008
Although women are now able to hold jobs and have more freedom in Afghanistan, they are still targeted by a resurgent Taliban as proven by the recent assassination of one policewoman.

"The Abu Sayyaf Model"
International Security Network’s Security Watch September 2008
Although Abu Sayyaf, once the greatest threat to Philippine security, has been dismembered with US help, this prescription is not likely to be an effective global policy.

"Words of Estimative Probability"
Competitive Intelligence Magazine Sep/Oct 2008  
When an intelligence estimate is produced to mitigate a threat, but the threat's significance or certainty is not clearly communicated to the decision-maker, a lack of linguistic clarity can have disastrous consequences in business or in national security. In the intelligence field, there is no agreement between analysts and decision-makers on specific words that express levels of analytical certainly required to enable selection and execution of appropriate decisions.

"Uighur Repression in China
International Security Network’s Security Watch August 2008
While China lays out the welcome mat for the world, millions of ethnic Chinese have made themselves at home uninvited in the land of the Uighur.

"Succeeding Turkmenbashi"
International Security Network’s Security Watch November 2007
Turkmenistan's new regime looks set to continue its neutrality policy in order to maintain its advantage in foreign affairs.

"Evaluating Intelligence"
Competitive Intelligence Magazine Sept/Oct 2007 
Six years and billions of dollars after 9/11 and the WMD estimate, how do we know if these and other changes have improved the quality of intelligence analysis? More important, how do we evaluate intelligence generally?

"Bulgaria-Macedonia Intel Scandal"
International Security Network’s Security Watch September 2007
Accusations against Bulgaria are highly likely to reveal more about current internal Macedonian political climate than interstate relations.

"Defining Strategic -- You and What Army?"
Competitive Intelligence Magazine Mar/Apr 2007 
Typically, when you hear the word strategic, you think long-term or expensive. You also think BIG – armies, football teams. By the same token, we can all think of strategic decisions that were actually quite small or executed over a very short time. Like so many other things in business, politics, or life, we know it when we see it but we have a hard time defining such concepts.

"Structured Analysis of Competing Hypotheses:  Improving a Tested Intelligence Methodology"
Competitive Intelligence Magazine Nov/Dec 2006
The ACH methodology helps analysts overcome cognitive biases common to analysis in national security, law enforcement, and competitive intelligence. This method forces analysts to disprove hypotheses rather than let their minds jump to conclusions and permit biases and mindsets to determine the outcome before they properly evaluate the evidence.

"Images of Twentieth Century Genocide:  Decoding Symbols and Heeding Warnings"
International Security Network May 2006
This study illustrates how an effective indicators and warning (I&W) system can act to prevent ethnic genocide in the 21st century. The author employs her findings from open-source data to argue that genocide campaigns require careful planning and psychological preparation. After identifying these and a number of other economic, social and political indicators that may predict the onset of violent ethnic conflict, the author stresses the importance of early intervention. She concludes with a case study of Zimbabwe, analyzing the country's risk for developing violent conflict.

The Analyst’s Cookbook
2006 Mercyhurst University Institute for Intelligence Studies Press: Erie, PA

Structured Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
2005 Mercyhurst University Institute for Intelligence Studies Press: Erie, PA

Unsolicited review of both books

Unsolicited review of The Analyst’s Cookbook

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